Premier League darts permutations: Who will make it to 2024 Finals Night?

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Premier League darts permutations: Who will make it to 2024 Finals Night?

A maximum of 20 points left up for grabs, four spots at London’s O2, and eight players vying for their chance to be there. But just who can realistically make it to Finals Night?

There are four more regular nights of action in the Premier League 2024, with Liverpool, Aberdeen, Leeds, and Sheffield the venues in which the fates of Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, Michael van Gerwen, Nathan Aspinall, Michael Smith, Gerwyn Price, Rob Cross, and Peter Wright will be decided.

If someone wins all four nights they will pick up 20 points, meaning that all eight players can, mathematically, secure a spot at the O2 on May 23, live on Sky Sports.

To make this simple, let’s look at each player’s chances, from most likely to least likely to be battling it out to be crowned Premier League Darts champion in 2024…

Humphries and Littler: The top dogs

Luke Humphries and Luke Littler sit top of the Premier League Darts Table after Night 12 in Rotterdam

Image: Humphries and Littler sit top of the Premier League Darts Table after Night 12 in Rotterdam

After 12 nights of darting drama, Luke Littler and Luke Humphries sit top of the tree on 26 points, Humphries with three nightly wins and Littler with two.

Littler has put in a solid display of how to keep the points ticking even without winning a raft of Nights, consistently making the semi-finals more than any other player.

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Littler hit a 164 checkout in the first leg of his quarter-final match against Michael Smith on Night 12

Littler faces Price and Aspinall over the next two weeks and knows that, if he beats one or both of these, he is on the edge of being a certainty at the O2.

Meanwhile, Humphries faces Price, Aspinall, and Cross – knowing if he wins at least two, he would be a certainty for May 23.

The two debutants are the ones to beat.

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Littler hit a sensational nine-darter against Rob Cross in the European Tour final

The battlers: MVG, Aspinall, and Smith

The middle of the table is where things get interesting. Van Gerwen, Aspinall, and Smith look to be the three players battling it out for the two remaining spots in the top four.

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Michael van Gerwen hit this impressive checkout during his quarter-final against Humphries on Night 12

None of these three face each other until Night 15 in Leeds, which could decide things. Aspinall and Smith face off in the quarter-finals at the First Direct Arena, meaning one will walk away with no points from that night and potentially see their chances of heading to The O2 come to an end.

However, if one or two of them can pick up a nightly win early on, they could put the pressure on their opponents as time runs out.

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Michael Smith beat Humphries in the quarter-final on Night 10

For MVG, quarter-final victories against Wright, Cross, and Price are the target as he looks to go back-to-back in the Premier League after his 2023 win.

Outside chances: Cross and Price

Cross and Price know that if they have a big few weeks, they could nick one of the four spots from the battlers in the middle.

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Gerwyn Price struck a nine-darter during his semi-final match against Smith on Night 10

Cross faces both Smith and MVG in the quarter-finals of Night 13 and 14, while the Iceman faces Van Gerwen on Night 15.

If they make these players walk away from those nights pointless and secure themselves in at least the semi-finals of each of these nights – and in the final of a couple – they could put themselves in the running to leave Aspinall, Smith, or MVG watching on as a winner is crowned on Night 17.

Miracle man: Wright to go on a run?

Wright has not been in form during this year’s Premier League, picking up just four points from two matches won.

Now, if he were to miraculously find the form that saw him be crowned a double world champion (2020 and 2022), he could statistically end Night 16 on 24 points if he won all of the remaining nights.

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Peter Wright got his second Premier League victory with a win over Rob Cross

But Wright needs more than just the points to claim a spot in the Finals. He would also need Aspinall and van Gerwen, who currently sit on 23 and 22 points respectively, to pick up no more points.

Not only that, but he would need Smith – who sits on 20 points – to only make two of the four remaining semi-finals up for grabs.

Basically, Snakebite would need the universe to work in the most mysterious of ways to see his Premier League campaign continue on until May 23.

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