Former King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux and Royale Pagaille headline a competitive Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday, with At The Races’ Declan Rix providing his big-race thoughts.
Clan Des Obeaux
Trainer: Paul Nicholls, Jockey: Harry Cobden
The two-time King George winner finished runner-up when trying to reclaim his crown first-time out 48 days ago.
He shaped well there, jumping and travelling well before a lack of a run and sitting too close to the hot pace took its toll.
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Entitled to come forward for that, as he drops in class, but poor recent stable form is a big concern, especially as he trades around the even-money mark.
Eldorado Allen
T: Colin Tizzard, J: Brendan Powell
Despite stable not thriving last season, he held his form better than most from the yard.
Has progressed further this campaign, and comes here on the back of a career best at Kempton where he shaped like being in the form of his life.
This requires more, as he steps up to 2m7½f for the first time, but both pedigree and visuals suggest he is well worth a crack, and may even improve for the trip.
Imperial Aura
T: Kim Bailey, J: David Bass
Former Cheltenham Festival winner improved in the early part of last season before an uncharacteristic mistake and unseat derailed his progress at Kempton.
Then pulled-up in an unrelenting Ryanair Chase and has started this season with form figures of FP, seeing his last four starts read UPFP.
Clearly capable of going close if on-song, but while you could make excuses for some recent runs, he is hard to fancy strongly.
Royale Pagaille
T: Venetia Williams, J: Charlie Deutsch
A small surprise to see him turn out so quickly, especially after a big handicap performance on soft ground 21 days ago.
Maybe didn’t travel as well as he can there, certainly the case on the final circuit, and his jumping can be messy among horses, but he won pricking an ear last time out, suggesting he had more to give.
Clearly capable of winning for an in-form combo, if last time out didn’t leave a mark.
De Rasher Counter
T: Emma Lavelle, J: Tom Bellamy
The 2019 winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase here at Newbury, but has only been seen three times subsequently and hasn’t raced in 489 days.
Trainer can ready one off a break, and he is the only runner not to carry a penalty, but this looks a tough start to the campaign, on paper anyway.
That said, does look overpriced at 25/1 if coming back to his famous course victory.
Declan’s Verdict
With doubts about just how well horses from Ditcheat will perform at the moment, Clan Des Obeaux makes little betting appeal, and in truth, is more of a lay around the even-money mark. Imperial Aura is a classy horse on his day, but hasn’t finished a race in four starts, while De Rasher Counter returns after 489 days off.
The two that make most betting interest are ROYALE PAGAILLE (5/2) and ELDORADO ALLEN (10/1). I would make the former favourite here, and a sub 2/1 price, but would be a little bit concerned about him backing up quickly on potentially faster than ideal ground.
Should he and Clan Des Obeaux both flop – and there are reasons both could – Eldorado Allen is hugely interesting stepping up in trip, on the back of a run where he looked in rude health. If this race turned tactical, the Tizzard inmate would have a better chance than his odds imply.